Where is the United States today? We’re in bad shape. Major corporations are bleeding money. Many Americans have lost a third of their net worth over the last two and a half weeks. The government is spending trillions on aid to corporate America, as well as the general public.. As you might or might not be aware, there there’s a pending bill that’s still being negotiated in the house.This bill will provide regular hard-working Americans with money over and above the unemployment they might need to collect right now. This will help people get through this tough time. Right now the administration is proposing to send around $1,000 for every adult and $500 for every child to American households in need.
As I understand it they’re just working out the details now and deciding what the income ceiling should be in regards to whether or not people should be receiving checks.As the president said “we’re not going to send $1,000 to a person that’s making a million dollars a year” and that certainly makes sense. At the end of the day the government can only do so much and a situation has to play out just the way it’s supposed to. There’s no fault here. No fault lies with these businesses or with the administration. If there’s any fault it lies with the Chinese government and their lack of candidness when it came to letting the whole world know what was going on there. if we would have known about it sooner we could have fought it sooner. Instead, the coronavirus rages through this country, killing Americans and wounding our economy.
Arguably, the Chinese government is completely responsible for many of the deaths around the world that could have been avoided if they had been more forthright. Their negligence has cost lives, and cost life savings. The savings will come back the lives never will. So why is this a recession as opposed to simply a coronavirus pull back? President Trump has said numerous times that as soon as this virus passes the market will return and surpass its previous highs. He’s either not telling the truth or he’s not getting the right information and I’ll tell you why. We’re watching what I call the trickle-down effect. Let me give you an example. I’m going to use an expression that we’ve all heard that before. “Part of the food chain” it’s about delicate balance. Small animals graze on grass. They get fat. Larger animals come out of the woods and eat the smaller animals that have gotten fat. These larger animals now go back into the woods and they get eaten by a big black bear. The bear gets hunted and he’s eaten by a human being.
Sounds terrible but it’s mother nature. It balances ecology and keeps all living things in a place where there’s enough to feed all on the planet. Now let’s take this thought and move it over to exactly what’s going on today. First off what’s going on is probably affecting you right now. If not, you’re lucky. Let’s not personalize it though..let’s use the actual businesses involved as the examples. Go back a year ago or so and you’ll remember that Boeing had a problem with their 737 airplanes. Two of them went down just months apart. Boeing took a hit with that and they’re still working on the problem. All those planes remain grounded so Boing is still taking that hit. In addition, these planes are not being bought. Boing is a good example because they went into this situation already having a problem.
Now we have Boeing with financial difficulties and an extremely contagious virus spreading throughout the world. The first thing people do is stop traveling. It affects the airlines. No fees no fares. That’s the problem of the carrier whether it be JetBlue, Southwest or any of the majors. That goes back and hurts Boing again because the carriers aren’t going to buy airplanes if they’re not making money on the ones they have. You might remember a headline from a week or so back that spoke of airlines flying ghost flights around the country. All that meant was is they were flying airplanes that might have had one or two passengers aboard. So now we have a major manufacturer hurting for money in two ways. In addition we have the carriers that aren’t making any money because nobody wants to fly right now. Well if nobody can fly what happens to the places that they would have stayed at? I’m talking about the hotels. All of a sudden publicly traded companies like MGM Entertainment, specifically their hotel division, Wynn, and others aren’t booking guests. The hotels are finding themselves pretty much empty.
What happens after that?
That’s pretty obvious, the hotel cuts back staff! We’re talking about a lot of staff. There’s no reason to have staff, like housekeeping or the servers that work at all those beautiful restaurants that are closed now .They have to close because there are no guests to feed. So the servers and the housekeepers are out of work. They create two more problems. Most importantly they lost their income which puts them in the position to request assistance just to feed their families. It also takes away their disposable income. I’m talking about the income that would allow them to go to the movies if the movies were open. Income that would allow them to take the children to the toy stores. Income that might take the family out to dinner before the restaurants closed this week. And these actions in turn would have put all the workers in the above-mentioned places out of work which continues the cycle. So this is the situation that we are in right now.
I think you can understand why I call it the trickle-down effect. The trickle-down effect also creates one other problem that a normal recession wouldn’t create. That problem is that these major corporations are going so deeply into debt that many are not going to recover. When this virus has passed Boeing is still going to have giant financial problems. I don’t believe they’ll ever go out of business but I do believe it’s going to take them years to make their money back and get back on their feet. This applies to the whole airline industry and the hospitality industry as well. if these businesses are still hurting a year from now the last thing that’s going up is their market price. Investors who normally make money back on the bounce don’t see the bounce because there can’t be a bounce if the companies that need the bounce are still hurting. And that’s the problem with America right now. The administration has problems. They have a lot of work to do and I think they’re on the right track. it’s going to take some time though and this is not a normal recession. That I can tell you for sure. Nobody alive has ever seen anything like this before.
Remember this word. Hydroxychloroquine. This is a drug that is 50 years old that was initially created for malaria patients. This drug has shown very encouraging results in other countries and if it’s effective against the coronavirus we might be able to mitigate the health crisis we’re having right now. This in turn would help businesses rebound more quickly than they would on their own. FDA commissioner Dr. Steven Hahn, has the FDA testing this drug against the virus. In a news conference today he wouldn’t put a time frame on it but promised that they’re working twenty-four hours a day to see if this drug works against corona virus and if it does they’ll be able to fast-track it. There are a couple of other drugs that they are considering that might not be as promising as this on, but the one thing that all these drugs have in common is they’ve been in use for years and they have proven themselves not to be dangerous. A vaccine is still going to take the minimum of a year to create and then at least 6 months to manufacture. Going through another flu season at the end of this year like this one, could spell disaster for many. Let’s hope that it doesn’t happen.
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